|Wk 1||Wk 2||Wk 3||Wk 4|
|Sales to New Listings|
|Months of Inventory|
No point in doing a sales projection when sales drop off so quickly in the later weeks of December. Should be between 300 and 330 according to last year's performance.
A quick note on construction. Here are the condo starts and completions over the last 23 years.
Some periods of note:
- The condo boom in the early 90s, when we were building some 75 units a month. That was when the term leaky condo still made you think of defective prophylactics rather than building envelopes.
- The aftermath when completions dropped down to 25-30/month for almost a decade.
- And the market recovery in the 2000s, leading to first a pickup in building, and then a period of over exuberance in 2007/08 when credit was flowing like water.
- The current levels is what I found interesting. The price of condos have flatlined and are significantly down from their peaks in 2008. You can likely ignore the small rebound this year, the MLS HPI shows a dead flat market amongst condos. And yet despite this miserable market, condo building is going strong. Some 70 units a month are sprouting up and there is no sign that builders are getting tired of it. We've seen some evidence of older condos being hit pretty hard by all the new construction, and I think at the current rate of building we will continue to see declines.
Developers are building at boom-time levels in a declining market. Interesting strategy...