| December 2013 | December 2012 | ||||
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | ||
| Unconditional Sales | 94 |
195
|
283
| ||
| New Listings | 148 | 282 |
405
| ||
| Active Listings | 3829 | 3709 |
3896
| ||
| Sales to New Listings |
64%
| 69% |
70%
| ||
| Sales Projection | --- | 330ish | |||
| Months of Inventory |
12.3
| ||||
Again no point in sales projections using days of the month. It's Christmas time, only a handful have a presents budget of half a million dollars.
238 comments:
«Oldest ‹Older 201 – 238 of 238"In the US, the housing markets that started to correct first didn't necessarily reach bottom first. However, the US cities that began to correct first generally experienced the biggest price corrections (think Victoria)."
"I don't know of any city in the US that corrected 5 years before the others. I think we can say we're in a different situation."
Different, but the difference is time only. In the US, for the most part, most cities corrected back to where their long-term price to income and price to rent ratios were able to provide support for house prices.
Victoria may have started to correct 3-4 years before most other Canadian cities (the exact length of time is unknown at this point) but so far Victoria remains as far away from its long term price to income and price to rent ratios as the vast majority of other Canadian cities. Therefore, the potential amount of future price correction that Victoria faces is similar to most other Canadian cities.
I will argue that Victoria will correct more from this point on than most other Canadian cities.
This is due to the fact that Victoria's market has proved to be the weakest housing market (major cities) in Canada over the past 4-5 years. While other Canadian cities have experienced price increases, Victoria experienced price drops. This shows an inherent weakness in Victoria's housing market relative to other Canadian markets. This weakness will extend into the future.
Time alone doesn't lessen the potential price decline. The only thing that could lessen the potential price decline would be the amount of price decline from peak so far and the total price decline from peak has only been 10-15%, which is relatively small in comparison to the total price run-up since 2000. Incomes have stagnated since 2008 and rents have not shot significantly higher.
In the US, those cities that began to correct first didn't necessarily reach bottom first. I think this will be the case in Canada as well. Nothing that has happened so far in terms of a price correction in Victoria can be used as evidence to conclude that her housing market will reach bottom before any other Canadian city.
That is consistent with an increased proportion of condo to SFH sales.
I don't see it. It is consistent with decreasing price and increasing incomes. Maybe there is some very small component of a shift to condos but it isn't large.
And according to JustJack there has been a shift away from condos.
And according to JustJack there has been a shift away from condos.
Yet they keep building them, so more people in the core must now live in condos relative to sfh's than a decade or so ago.
The best bet for a reduction in price/incomes ratio would be a genuine economic recovery, which would force the BoC to raise interest rates, thus likely driving down RE prices, especially if all those investors in empty condos panic and liquidate their holdings.
But it seems more likely we'll just drag on in a state of recession or near recession for years to come, with permanent emergency or near emergency low interest rates.
Still by holding rates low the BofC is doing its best. The $C has weakened and if the weakness is sustained it will boost the resource sector, and maybe some of those natural gas royalties will come back to Victoria. More likely, though, Christie Clark will move the Provincial capital to Kelowna, where they vote right.
Yet they keep building them, so more people in the core must now live in condos relative to sfh's than a decade or so ago.
Must? Developers build what the market demands. I would conclude apparently there is more demand to live in a condo in the core than in a SFH in Sooke.
What other option do you have in the core other than density?
Must?
Used as in:
expressing an opinion about something that is logically very likely
rather than as in:
to be obliged to do something
Increasing income disparity must be a factor that is changing the characteristics of the housing market.
Typically 65% of the population live in owner occupied housing. That means that as income inequality increases the income of the 65% buying homes is increasing relative to the average income (because incomes of the bottom 35% increase the least). All other things being equal, that will likely raise the ratio of price to mean household income, although it will not affect the ratio of price to mean household income of those actually buying houses. This effect should be permanent, or until such time as income inequality declines. I am not sure how significant this is. The question might make a good topic for a master's thesis in something or other!
Last year, 230 condominiums were bought downtown at a median price of $295,000.
Last year in Sooke, 208 homes were bought at a median price of $383,000.
And I bet that almost all of those homes bought in Sooke will be occupied by the owner. In contrast, half of the condos downtown will be used as rentals.
I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that demand is stronger for downtown condos to owning a home in Sooke. I think investors like them as rentals, but they themselves wouldn't live in one.
If you expand to all of the core districts then the number of condos sold last year is 1,165. But there is likely 250,000 people living in the core relative to Sooke at 10,000.
It's hard or even unrealistic to make a comparison from on location to another. Let alone one class of housing relative to a different class.
In our culture, money is the measure of value. The more you pay must mean the stronger demand for the product.
In Sooke the median price was $418,000 last month and that got you a 2,200 square foot home on a half acre.
While $395,000 got you a 917 square foot condo on Rupert Street.
Which would you choose?
"Which would you choose?"
Preferably neither, but if I worked downtown I'd choose the condo over the commute. Sooke would be a decent choice if your work was there or in Langford or Colwood
Thursday January 2, 2013 7:25am:
Dec Dec
2013 2012
Net Unconditional Sales: 355 283
New Listings: 437 405
Active Listings: 3,554 3,896
Please Note
•Left Column: stats for the entire month from this year
•Right Column: stats for the entire month from last year
Poor poor Metchosin, a decrease of 10 percent in one year.
Greater Victoria home values slip as much as five per cent this year
Just got my condo property assessment. A bit of a shocker. The total assessed value is down by $80K!!. I wonder how much the taxes will go down.
This is a game to increase taxes not reduce them. They will just increase the percentage so the dollar value stays the same until the assessments go up again.... Just in time to pay for the new bridge and the sewage treatment projects...
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