Monday, October 20, 2014

Oct 20 Market Update

MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.


Oct 2014Oct
 2013
Wk 1Wk 2Wk 3Wk 4
Unconditional Sales83
230
356
512
New Listings178393556
979
Active Listings410040603988
4322
Sales to New Listings
47%
59%64%
52%
Sales Projection--661630

Months of Inventory
8.4


There has been some discussion about this piece of "analysis" by a mortgage broker.  His theory is that when interest rates go up, so do prices.  Apparently in the last 30 years, increasing mortgage rates lead to increasing prices 62% of the time 2 months later.  Never mind that the two month lag is never justified (as Just Jack said, a 3 month rate hold would blow that out of the water).  The obvious gaping hole in this theory is that prices have been increasing for most of that 30 year period, so it's not at all surprising that 62% of the months they went up.  If someone were to care to evaluate the entire period they would probably find more than 62% of months that showed increasing prices.

Tuesday, October 14, 2014

Oct 14 Market Update

MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.


Oct 2014Oct
 2013
Wk 1Wk 2Wk 3Wk 4
Unconditional Sales83
230


512
New Listings178393

979
Active Listings41004060

4322
Sales to New Listings
47%
59%

52%
Sales Projection--661


Months of Inventory
8.4



Per Marko's request.  We're still (almost) the weakest market in the country for the past 7 years.  Edged out Edmonton in the last couple months but I suspect when September numbers are out we will be in last place.


Saturday, October 11, 2014

What it cost to run our house.

In case anyone is wondering what it costs to run a pretty typical house, here is ours for last year:

Gordon head, 1970s build, ~2100sqft.   2 adults 1 child upstairs, 1 adult in suite downstairs.


Month Hydro Gas  Water/Sewer /Garbage Property Tax Insurance
January  $172.67  $86.25  $200.91
February  $164.64  $104.95
March  $164.64  $78.70
April  $96.83  $78.29
May  $96.83  $65.17
June  $57.49  $59.59  $222.13
July  $57.49  $45.90  $2,897.88  $957.00
August  $57.69  $79.23
September  $57.69  $70.33
October  $110.68  $50.91  $263.32
November  $110.68  $75.68
December  $172.67  $86.47
 Total Utilities   $2,888.00
 Total   $6,743.00

Heating is a heat pump with gas backup and baseboards downstairs.  Gas for hot water and 2 fireplaces (rarely used).   

So even without factoring the mortgage in, it costs about $560/month to keep the place operating.   Adding in mortgage interest, that goes to $1450/month.    Nothing big on maintenance, but the new gutters and some random Home Depot excursions probably added up to another $100/month.

Monday, September 29, 2014

Sept 29 Market Update

MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.


Sept 2014Sept
 2013
Wk 1Wk 2Wk 3Wk 4
Unconditional Sales105
232
362511
487
New Listings3255808101034
1106
Active Listings4293431042804261
4547
Sales to New Listings
32%
40%45%49%
44%
Sales Projection462510530562
Months of Inventory
9.3



Hey it's an update.  By the way thanks Dasmo for posting the article about the true cost of commuting a few weeks ago.  That lead me to discover Mr. Money Moustache and I've been devouring that blog from start to finish ever since.   Next project: early retirement / financial independence.
Amazing how I didn't stumble across this blog before, given that I suspect there are quite a few commenters here that follow this philosophy.  I'm particularly interested in how realistic the early retirement concept is in an expensive city like Victoria.  Unlike Mr. Money Moustache, our house didn't cost $200,000, we're not retired before having kids (and thus childcare), and most everything is more money in Canada than in the US.  However everyone can still use a good punch in the face as far as spending is concerned.
Bonus:  an entirely new set of spreadsheets to create, and there's nothing like a good spreadsheet to get the adrenaline going.

Sunday, September 7, 2014

September

So...   how 'bout this heat?

An unexpected joy of homeownership came up this summer, twice even.  That is scraping egg off stucco that some local teenagers tossed at the house.   Or maybe it was info reminding me to put another damn post up before we hit 500 comments.

Well not much has changed in September, but more and more the market seems to be stabilizing.   Is it a plateau?  Is it a rebound?  Is there a dead cat involved?  Although we hardly fell fast enough to bounce.  Time to update the spreadsheet and see if any particular graph looks interesting enough to post.

Here's one:
Since the market peak in 2010 we had steadily worsening conditions for three whole years.  Every month the inventory grew and sales flagged.  But since mid 2013 there has been a reversal that has been remarkably consistent.   MOI has been dropping for over a year now while prices slowly creep up.   Will this turn around without more government intervention?   Or maybe the 112,000 lost private sector jobs in August will temper the trend all on its own.



Wednesday, July 23, 2014

Incomes versus prices: what say the numbers?

Statistics Canada released a report of household earnings based on 2012 reported income recently. Depending on your POV, you may or may not be surprised to learn Calgarians reported the highest earnings in the nation. Thought it may be fun to compare 2012 earnings with 2014 average home prices as reported by CREA for a few towns in the Great White North.

City Median income Average price Price/Income
Calgary $98,300 $466,994 4.75
Edmonton $96,030 $371,839 3.87
Ottawa $94,230 $365,366 3.87
St. John's $87,150 $349,649 4.01
Victoria $81,580 $496,225 6.08
Canada $74,540 $413,215 5.54
Vancouver $71,140 $796,714 11.19
Toronto $71,210 $568,953 7.99

I was surprised by the incomes reported in Victoria. I would have thought they'd be closer to Vancouver. Perhaps not unexpected is the fact that the two most expensive towns to own a home are also below the national average for income. It's not completely clear what the inputs for "average home price" are in CREA's system, but I'd wager they're lumping and smoothing condos, semi-detached and detached. 

Useful exercise? Thoughts? I'm sure some of the more number savvy folks around here can improve upon my Grade 3 level analysis in the comments. 

Thursday, July 3, 2014

July update

Busy times at work and home, so haven't had much time for the blog lately. Of course the small matter that we're no longer house hunting in Victoria plays a role.   However the comments are great as always, so here's another post to keep the party going.   

June numbers are out and I'm happy to see that a bit of the old VREB salesman spark is back.  It's a good time to buy and a good time to sell, so everyone should be happy, most of all the realtors.  It was looking like a mass extinction event was underway for Victoria realtors, but this upswing could forestall that.

Year over year sales increases are starting to peter out, mostly because we're starting to compare to months where it was already picking up last year.  Prices up a bit in the core, down a bit on the west shore.

Marko reports that many buyers are holding on to their rentals to get a better price.  Just like they were last year, and the year before, and the year before that.   Eventually, "I'll hold out another year" turns into "f*ck it let's sell".