Monday, March 2, 2015

February 2015 Monthly Stats

Pretty strong February.  Sales up 31%, inventory down 8%.   The trend towards improving market continues at a surprisingly steady clip, with prices matching inflation for the last year and a half.   


SFH prices basically dead flat from last year.   If we see another strong month though this graph will jump.


Another way to visualize the change in the market since 2013 is to look at the change in inventory from the same month the year before.


Only sign of anything different is an increase in new listings over last year.  Haven't seen that since last May.  With more chatter of a better market, it might lure some potential sellers out of the woodwork this spring.



Monday, February 23, 2015

Feb 23 Market Update

MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.



Feb 2015
Feb
 2014
Wk 1Wk 2Wk 3Wk 4
Unconditional Sales118
226
396
412
New Listings352587877
1064
Active Listings332434013448
3770
Sales to New Listings
34%
39%45%
39%
Sales Projection--452528

Months of Inventory
9.1


Strong week so expect over 500 sales for the month.  If this week matches last we could hit almost 570 sales which would be the highest since 2010.  

Monday, February 16, 2015

Feb 16 Market Update

MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.


Feb 2015
Feb
 2014
Wk 1Wk 2Wk 3Wk 4
Unconditional Sales118
226


412
New Listings352587

1064
Active Listings33243401

3770
Sales to New Listings
34%
39%

39%
Sales Projection--452


Months of Inventory
9.1


Relatively strong first two weeks with sales pace about 10% higher than last year.   Those interest rates might be luring a few buyers out of the woodwork.  

Monday, January 26, 2015

Jan 26 Market Update

MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.



Jan 2015
Jan
 2014
Wk 1Wk 2Wk 3Wk 4
Unconditional Sales83
165
265
342
New Listings286541786
1090
Active Listings302031213198
3489
Sales to New Listings
29%
30%34%
31%
Sales Projection--302342

Months of Inventory
10.2


Should be somewhat above last year's total given accelerating sales pace, but likely not a lot.  About 360-370 I'm guessing.

Wednesday, January 21, 2015

2015 Predictions

"I'll bet rates stay at 1% for another year." - me two weeks ago.
Well I'm not getting any more accurate, but at least I'm wrong more quickly.

Time to lay it out for 2015.   We're in the middle of some pretty momentous changes with oil (and oil related investments) dropping through the floor.  Now the Bank of Canada has surprised everyone with a rate cut.  Will the rate cut stimulate the local housing market with lower mortgage rates?  Or is it a sign of a slower economy that will drag on the market?

How are those numbers doing anyway?

Current prices and HPI.  Median down a bit in recent months.


Months of inventory



Annual rolling averages.  Months of inventory still going down at a good clip.  Prince increases flattening out lately.

Sales to new listings.  Still trending positive.


Relative to peak prices.


Affordability bigger picture stuff.  Income gains and interest rates drops causing affordability to steadily increase.



The 5 year lending rate recently cracked an all time low at 3.98%.    Looks like the journey down isn't quite done yet.



This year I'm guess we will see the Bank of Canada battle outright deflation.  If oil stays low for a while longer things won't look so pretty, and it might cost the conservatives the government in the fall.

In Victoria, I'm guessing a small improvement over last year's numbers but more or less more of the same, with the month over month increases petering out by springtime.   Prices will remain the same pulled down a bit by more first timers entering the market.
Total sales:  7200
2015 Average SFH price: $610,000
BoC Interest rate:  0.75%
Teranet June 2015:  138
Teranet Dec 2015: 140

Monday, January 5, 2015

New years prediction roundup

End of the year and the annual numbers are in.   How did we do in last year's predictions?

LeoKoozdraMarkoCaveat EmptorPatriotzReasonfirstACTUAL
Sales6200530064006000---61006699
SFH 6 month average$580,000$550,000$585,000$565,000------$609,342*
BoC Interest Rate1%0.5%1%0.75%---1.25%1%
Teranet June 2014128130132131129128136.2
Teranet Dec 2014124126131128124125TBD (Nov: 138.2)

* The 6 month average SFH price does not appear to be published anymore. This is the annual average.

Overall we all sucked.   Marko wins for being closest on every measure; that's why he gets paid the big bucks.

 Other predictions:
"House prices across the Canadian housing market may peak in 2014. Victoria's big price declines will likely begin after the Canadian housing market peaks and it is evident that house prices across Canada have begun to correct." - Info

"further controls will be added to the mortgage market but I think at least one of them will be head line grabbing. I'm going to go with regional caps re-established on CMHC insurance." - Koozdra  (some minor tweaks happened)

"I think we will see a drop in prices of approximately 5% by December (in Oak Bay)" - totoro

"In short, 2014 to early 2015 will see a sharp transition. This will result in either a significant increase in MOI or significantly lower prices; probably a combination of both." - LeoM

"MLS HPI (2014): - 4%" - Info (Actual: Up 2.1%)

"Any generalized market prediction would be meaningless in this market." - Just Jack

Assessments are also in and overall seem to be pretty flat except for in the periphery.

In important economic news, oil prices below $50 a barrel.  How long can the oil sands withstand operating at a loss before those camp jobs start evaporating?

Monday, December 15, 2014

Dec 15 Market Update

MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.

Updated Dec 22


Dec 2014
Dec
 2013
Wk 1Wk 2Wk 3Wk 4
Unconditional Sales112
198
306
355
New Listings148271348
437
Active Listings345534063301
3554
Sales to New Listings
76%
73%88%
81%
Sales Projection--455469

Months of Inventory
10


We won't be hitting the estimate as sales will drop off significantly at the tail end of the month.    Likely closer to 400.    Some signs of a slowdown with the Teranet composite down 0.3% in November with many cities showing a decline, including yours truly.  CMHC also continues to tinker, hiking fees to insure mortgage backed securities by up to 200%.

Update:  A while back there was some chatter about the appreciation rates of condos and single family homes.   I would think that since "they ain't making any more land", the appreciation rate for condos would lag that of SFHs.   So I took a simplistic look at the appreciation rates for both over all 5 year periods over the last 25 odd years and here's the result.


The rates are closer than I thought, but there definitely is a difference between the two.   Average 5 year appreciation is 38% for SFHs, and 32% for condos (or ~1% a year).   I would suspect that a re-sale based index would show a somewhat wider difference.
The condo market is also a bit more volatile, with a range from a 20% drop over 5 years to a 128% increase, while SFHs have ranged from a drop of only 7% to an increase of 109%.