Monday, January 26, 2015

Jan 26 Market Update

MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.



Jan 2015
Jan
 2014
Wk 1Wk 2Wk 3Wk 4
Unconditional Sales83
165
265
342
New Listings286541786
1090
Active Listings302031213198
3489
Sales to New Listings
29%
30%34%
31%
Sales Projection--302342

Months of Inventory
10.2


Should be somewhat above last year's total given accelerating sales pace, but likely not a lot.  About 360-370 I'm guessing.

Wednesday, January 21, 2015

2015 Predictions

"I'll bet rates stay at 1% for another year." - me two weeks ago.
Well I'm not getting any more accurate, but at least I'm wrong more quickly.

Time to lay it out for 2015.   We're in the middle of some pretty momentous changes with oil (and oil related investments) dropping through the floor.  Now the Bank of Canada has surprised everyone with a rate cut.  Will the rate cut stimulate the local housing market with lower mortgage rates?  Or is it a sign of a slower economy that will drag on the market?

How are those numbers doing anyway?

Current prices and HPI.  Median down a bit in recent months.


Months of inventory



Annual rolling averages.  Months of inventory still going down at a good clip.  Prince increases flattening out lately.

Sales to new listings.  Still trending positive.


Relative to peak prices.


Affordability bigger picture stuff.  Income gains and interest rates drops causing affordability to steadily increase.



The 5 year lending rate recently cracked an all time low at 3.98%.    Looks like the journey down isn't quite done yet.



This year I'm guess we will see the Bank of Canada battle outright deflation.  If oil stays low for a while longer things won't look so pretty, and it might cost the conservatives the government in the fall.

In Victoria, I'm guessing a small improvement over last year's numbers but more or less more of the same, with the month over month increases petering out by springtime.   Prices will remain the same pulled down a bit by more first timers entering the market.
Total sales:  7200
2015 Average SFH price: $610,000
BoC Interest rate:  0.75%
Teranet June 2015:  138
Teranet Dec 2015: 140

Monday, January 5, 2015

New years prediction roundup

End of the year and the annual numbers are in.   How did we do in last year's predictions?

LeoKoozdraMarkoCaveat EmptorPatriotzReasonfirstACTUAL
Sales6200530064006000---61006699
SFH 6 month average$580,000$550,000$585,000$565,000------$609,342*
BoC Interest Rate1%0.5%1%0.75%---1.25%1%
Teranet June 2014128130132131129128136.2
Teranet Dec 2014124126131128124125TBD (Nov: 138.2)

* The 6 month average SFH price does not appear to be published anymore. This is the annual average.

Overall we all sucked.   Marko wins for being closest on every measure; that's why he gets paid the big bucks.

 Other predictions:
"House prices across the Canadian housing market may peak in 2014. Victoria's big price declines will likely begin after the Canadian housing market peaks and it is evident that house prices across Canada have begun to correct." - Info

"further controls will be added to the mortgage market but I think at least one of them will be head line grabbing. I'm going to go with regional caps re-established on CMHC insurance." - Koozdra  (some minor tweaks happened)

"I think we will see a drop in prices of approximately 5% by December (in Oak Bay)" - totoro

"In short, 2014 to early 2015 will see a sharp transition. This will result in either a significant increase in MOI or significantly lower prices; probably a combination of both." - LeoM

"MLS HPI (2014): - 4%" - Info (Actual: Up 2.1%)

"Any generalized market prediction would be meaningless in this market." - Just Jack

Assessments are also in and overall seem to be pretty flat except for in the periphery.

In important economic news, oil prices below $50 a barrel.  How long can the oil sands withstand operating at a loss before those camp jobs start evaporating?

Monday, December 15, 2014

Dec 15 Market Update

MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.

Updated Dec 22


Dec 2014
Dec
 2013
Wk 1Wk 2Wk 3Wk 4
Unconditional Sales112
198
306
355
New Listings148271348
437
Active Listings345534063301
3554
Sales to New Listings
76%
73%88%
81%
Sales Projection--455469

Months of Inventory
10


We won't be hitting the estimate as sales will drop off significantly at the tail end of the month.    Likely closer to 400.    Some signs of a slowdown with the Teranet composite down 0.3% in November with many cities showing a decline, including yours truly.  CMHC also continues to tinker, hiking fees to insure mortgage backed securities by up to 200%.

Update:  A while back there was some chatter about the appreciation rates of condos and single family homes.   I would think that since "they ain't making any more land", the appreciation rate for condos would lag that of SFHs.   So I took a simplistic look at the appreciation rates for both over all 5 year periods over the last 25 odd years and here's the result.


The rates are closer than I thought, but there definitely is a difference between the two.   Average 5 year appreciation is 38% for SFHs, and 32% for condos (or ~1% a year).   I would suspect that a re-sale based index would show a somewhat wider difference.
The condo market is also a bit more volatile, with a range from a 20% drop over 5 years to a 128% increase, while SFHs have ranged from a drop of only 7% to an increase of 109%.

Wednesday, November 26, 2014

Nov 25 Market Update

MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.


Nov 2014
Nov
 2013
Wk 1Wk 2Wk 3Wk 4
Unconditional Sales137
234
357
412
New Listings195366516
698
Active Listings372236853639
4017
Sales to New Listings
70%
64%69%
59%
Sales Projection--468476

Months of Inventory
9.8



Tuesday, November 11, 2014

Nov 10 Market Update

MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.


Nov 2014
Nov
 2013
Wk 1Wk 2Wk 3Wk 4
Unconditional Sales137



412
New Listings195


698
Active Listings3722


4017
Sales to New Listings
70%



59%
Sales Projection--



Months of Inventory
9.8


Pretty comparable sales to this week last year but with somewhat lower inventory and fewer new listings coming online.

Monday, October 20, 2014

Oct 20 Market Update

MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.


Oct 2014Oct
 2013
Wk 1Wk 2Wk 3Wk 4
Unconditional Sales83
230
356
512
New Listings178393556
979
Active Listings410040603988
4322
Sales to New Listings
47%
59%64%
52%
Sales Projection--661630

Months of Inventory
8.4


There has been some discussion about this piece of "analysis" by a mortgage broker.  His theory is that when interest rates go up, so do prices.  Apparently in the last 30 years, increasing mortgage rates lead to increasing prices 62% of the time 2 months later.  Never mind that the two month lag is never justified (as Just Jack said, a 3 month rate hold would blow that out of the water).  The obvious gaping hole in this theory is that prices have been increasing for most of that 30 year period, so it's not at all surprising that 62% of the months they went up.  If someone were to care to evaluate the entire period they would probably find more than 62% of months that showed increasing prices.